Memo 1: The Presidential and Humanitarian Crisis in Venezuela

To: POL 245: American Foreign Policy

From: Nicole Buchanan, Hillary Ferreira, Brenna Kueter, Will Moreton, and Taylor White (Group 5)

Date: February 10, 2019

RE: The Presidential and Humanitarian Crisis in Venezuela

Executive Summary

On January 23, 2019, Juan Guiado, the President of the National Assembly, proclaimed himself acting president following the controversial elections the previous May. Guiado stated that he would assume all the powers of the executive branch, and undertook this role in spite of Maduro, who had just been inaugurated for the second time on January 10th. The military has also played a role in the crisis, as they have been outwardly supportive of Maduro and his threatening agenda. The Venezuelan people have had to take actions to protect themselves and their families leading to one of the largest forced migrations in the Western hemisphere. To mitigate the effects of this crisis the international community has taken action, with over fifty countries condemning the results of May’s election and choosing to back Guiado, the most viable opposition leader.

Origins of the Crisis:

Over the past two decades, the Venezuelan government has made a series of misguided decisions that have led to hyperinflation, food shortages, and mass migration. President Nicolas Maduro has worsened the situation with violent repression of opposition parties and has sought to silence all political dissent. Following the death of Hugo Chavez in 2013 Nicolas Maduro, his vice president, assumed office as the interim leader. A special election took place two months later and Maduro, running under the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, won 51% of the vote. Since becoming president, Maduro has inflamed political tensions and worsened living conditions for the majority of Venezuelans. Due to widespread censorship, imprisonment, execution, and deportation of political opponents, voter turnout in the May 2018 election was extremely low, with over 50% of eligible voters not casting ballots. Despite the low turnout, Maduro was reelected to a six year term which has led many in the international community to question the validity of the results. The United States since increased sanctions aimed at Venezuela's oil industry, the government’s main source of revenue.

Actions Taken by the Venezuelan Government:

The Venezuelan military is a major player in society and has the potential to decide the fate of the presidency. Armed forces have largely shown allegiance to Maduro, despite Guiado’s recent claim to the presidency. Since Hugo Chavez’s presidency, the Venezuelan military has been aggressively built up and reinforced with Russian weaponry, as Russia shares many of Venezuela’s socialist views. Throughout the crisis, the military has been responsible for blocking humanitarian aid from states pledging support for Maduro’s opposition, including countries who have publicly backed Guiado. On February 8th a convoy carrying food, medical supplies, and hygiene kits from the United States was prevented from entering the country through the western border with Colombia. Two shipping containers and one oil tanker have been placed horizontally across all traffic lanes of the bridge connecting the two countries, and armed guards have been maintaining a presence on the Venezuelan side. Maduro has and continues to deny the humanitarian crisis within his borders, as admitting to the disastrous conditions inside his country will reinforce the idea that his presidency is illegitimate. Thus, all international aid and intervention have been barred from entering Venezuela.  

Actions Taken by the Venezuelan People:

Throughout Maduro’s presidency, economic and social order have collapsed, leaving millions of Venezuelans without medical care, food, and vulnerable to a murder rate fifteen times higher than the global average. In 2014 citizens began protesting against Maduro’s actions, but all dissent was violently suppressed by riot police and pro-government gangs. Since then the main focus of citizens has been survival, which has resulted in over three million Venezuelans fleeing the country. The majority of these refugees have crossed into Colombia, and from there some chose to continue on to Ecuador, Peru, and Chile. Fewer Venezuelans have chosen to cross into Brazil, Mexico, and the United States, largely due to geographic barriers that make travel lengthy and more difficult than the other options available. Venezuelan migration is the largest forced displacement facing the Western hemisphere and poses significant economic and social repercussions for countries in the region.

International Responses:

The turmoil within Venezuela has yielded one of the largest humanitarian crises in recent history, thus sparking widespread international intervention. The most pressing issues facing the international community involve mitigating refugee flows, increasing Maduro’s accountability, and preparing for contingencies such as forced evacuation or border confrontation. The United Nations has requested that member-states avoid the use of sanctions due to their historic tendency to inflame tensions and target the general public, most of whom are unprepared to deal with further hardship. While traditionally sanctions would be employed as a method for curtailing the Maduro regime, in this situation such coercion would only worsen the humanitarian crisis and increase political unrest. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has followed these recommendations and is working to enhance health services and food assistance in those communities most vulnerable. By prioritizing the protection of individuals within Venezuela, the potential for violent overflow across borders is decreased, and the potential for regional vulnerability is curtailed.

Recommended Actions for the United States:

The United States has the potential to play a vital role in remedying the turmoil currently facing Venezuela and alleviating the humanitarian crisis ultimately aligns with American interests.  The Department of Justice is currently investigating drug charges against Vice President Tareck El Aissami and the Department of Treasury has sanctioned eighty-eight government officials. Moving forward with criminal prosecutions on American soil is likely a fear of the Maduro regime, as is long-term isolation from the United States’ financial system. Prosecuting Maduro’s top supporters would serve to disconnect the regime from the rest of the world and destroy any legitimacy they may carry. Additionally, the United States should continue working to alleviate the humanitarian crisis by continuing USAID efforts and providing support to neighboring countries taking in the majority of Venezuelan refugees. Doing so will help stabilize the region and prevent the crisis from escalating into a protracted regional conflict.

Bibliography

"Independent UN Rights Expert Calls for Compassion, Not Sanctions on Venezuela." United Nations News. January 31, 2019. https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/01/1031722.

Joyner, Alfred. "How Strong Is Venezuela's Military?" World. January 22, 2019. https://www.newsweek.com/how-strong-venezuelas-military-1277131.

Phillips, Tom, and Joe Parkin Daniels. "Venezuelan Troops Blockade Bridge to Stop Aid from Colombia." The Guardian. February 06, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/06/venezuelan-troops-blockade-bridge-to-stop-aid-from-colombia.

Restrepo, Dan. "Venezuela in Crisis: A Way Forward." Foreign Policy and Security. October 16, 2018. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2018/10/16/459352/venezuela-crisis-way-forward/.

Staff, The Week. "The Growing Crisis in Venezuela." Analysis. January 21, 2019. https://theweek.com/articles/818382/growing-crisis-venezuela.

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Wallenfeldt, Jeff. "Nicolás Maduro." Encyclopædia Britannica. January 24, 2019. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Nicolas-Maduro.