Memo 3: After 30 Years in Office, Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir has been Removed
To: POL 245: American Foreign Policy
From: Nicole Buchanan, Hillary Ferreira, Brenna Kueter, Will Moreton, and Taylor White (Group 5)
Date: April 20, 2019
RE: After 30 Years in Office, Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir has been Removed
Executive Summary
After months of protests, on April 11, 2019, Sudan’s military overthrew President Omar al-Bashir. al-Bashir had been immensely criticized for his repressive rule and had held power for over 30 years. As Sudan looks to transition to a peaceful democracy, the country will be run by a military council for the next two years before it begins to implement free and fair elections. The news of the end of al-Bashir’s reign comes only one week after Algeria’s president Abdelaziz Bouteflika stepped down from office due to societal pressure. The toppling of these military leaders shows distinct resemblance to the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011.
Darfur Genocide:
Currently al-Bashir is facing five counts of crimes against humanity and two counts of war crimes in the International Criminal Court due to his actions in Darfur, an area of Western Sudan, between 2003 and 2008. The collective charges brought against him include alleged murder, torture, rape, and the intentional targeting of civilians. The Darfur genocide is considered the first genocide of the 21st century and the United Nations estimates that 300,000 Darfuri civilians lost their lives. Darfur specifically was targeted because it was the home of many of the opposition groups that were critical and did not approve of al-Bashir’s reign.
Food Shortages and Rising Prices:
Food shortages and rising prices have been the primary reasons protests against al-Bashir arose, but most recently al-Bashir decided to end the government subsidies for bread making. This, compounded with the rapid inflation rates Sudan has faced, led to the price of bread nearly tripling within a single day. When South Sudan declared independence from Sudan, the Sudanese economy was unable to rely on the profits from the oil industry, thus creating an unprecedented economic spiral. The combination of weak government, induced incentive to produce food, and daily price increases due to inflation has led the people of Sudan to protest al-Bashir and his influence within the current government. Those within Sudan felt that the government had the resources to alleviate these issues, but they lack trust in al-Bashir's ability to allocate these resources correctly. This led to chants throughout the streets, translating to “the people demand the fall of the regime.”
U.S. Assistance to Sudan:
Due to the prevalent conflicts and tendency for natural disasters, Sudan primarily receives humanitarian aid from the United States. The United States has a natural interest in paving the way for a Sudanese government that embraces democracy, which has been gradually implemented by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. This accord aims to pave the way for a democratic Sudan by ending the civil war and allowing for aid that specifically combats gender-based violence, food insecurity, and complications regarding assistance delivery during conflict. Additionally, the United States is also involved in limited bilateral trade with Sudan to help improve their economy. The United States has lifted prior sanctions on Sudan in an attempt to boost their economy, but this action had little effect on halting the rising inflation. Opportunities still exist for Sudan to receive more funding from the United States and the international community, but its place on the United States' list of state-sponsored terrorism prevents this.
The Transitional Government:
Shortly after the ousting of former Sudanese President al-Bashir, the military announced that a military council will be running the nation for the next two years while democratic elections are organized. General Abdel-Fattah Burhan has been sworn in as the leader of the transitional government after the Sudanese people rejected General Awad ibn Ouf, a close ally of the former president. In an effort to win the support of the general public, the council recently announced that the new prime minister and cabinet officials would be civilians. Despite this statement, the Sudanese citizens have largely disapproved of the involvement of the military in any role of the transitional government. Protestors recently released statements requesting that the military allow for a four year interim government that consists solely of civilians, but these appeals have not been acted upon. The United States Department of State has asked the military to “step aside and make way for a peaceful civilian-led transition.” However, it is clear that the protests will not end until the military has released power to civilians. The State Department is set to have an official meeting in Sudan to access the situation.
Recommendations:
Since the end of Sudan’s civil war, the United States has provided extensive aid to the country and sought out ways to help and invigorate Sudan’s economy. The United States should continue its efforts to support Sudan, as this upcoming period is a critical moment for the country’s government. Bolstering relations with the country and working to make Sudan prosperous and stabilized will further United States interests, as peace within Sudan could prevent an intensified conflict that could implicate the entire region. Additionally, as the State Department looks to hold meetings with Sudan, the United States should continue to hold their stance for peaceful civilian-led transition rather than a military-led government. It is essential that Sudanese civilians feel secure and confident in the new transitional government in order for Sudan to have a prosperous, democratic state.
Bibliography
Elbagir, Nima. "Sudan's President Bashir Forced out in Military Coup." CNN. April 11, 2019. https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/11/africa/sudan-unrest-intl/index.html.
Magdy, Samy. "New Ruling Sudan Military Council Promises Civilian Cabinet." AP NEWS. April 14, 2019. https://www.apnews.com/b00ee252cf4c4d08b2d0a88380df2696.
Michael, Maggie. "Sudan's Military Overthrows President amid Bloody Protests." AP NEWS. April 11, 2019. https://apnews.com/3b259f7aacaa4601a713103006de8687.https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/12/africa/sudan-army-bashir-intl/index.html\.
Peralta, Eyder. "Upset Over Rising Prices, Protesters In Sudan Take To The Streets." NPR. December 27, 2018. https://www.npr.org/2018/12/27/680385220/upset-over-rising-prices-protesters-in-sudan-take-to-the-streets.
"Sudan | Disaster Assistance." U.S. Agency for International Development. March 18, 2019. https://www.usaid.gov/crisis/sudan.
The Prosecutor v. Omar Hassan Ahmad Al Bashir (International Criminal Court April, 2018). https://www.icc-cpi.int/CaseInformationSheets/AlBashirEng.pdf.
"Why the End of US Sanctions Hasn't Helped Sudan." BBC News. July 11, 2018. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44711355.
Wroughton, Lesley. "U.S. Urges Sudan's Military to Step Aside, Make Way For..." Reuters. April 18, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sudan-politics-usa/us-says-supports-transition-in-sudan-led-by-civilians-idUSKCN1RU23B.
From: Nicole Buchanan, Hillary Ferreira, Brenna Kueter, Will Moreton, and Taylor White (Group 5)
Date: April 20, 2019
RE: After 30 Years in Office, Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir has been Removed
Executive Summary
After months of protests, on April 11, 2019, Sudan’s military overthrew President Omar al-Bashir. al-Bashir had been immensely criticized for his repressive rule and had held power for over 30 years. As Sudan looks to transition to a peaceful democracy, the country will be run by a military council for the next two years before it begins to implement free and fair elections. The news of the end of al-Bashir’s reign comes only one week after Algeria’s president Abdelaziz Bouteflika stepped down from office due to societal pressure. The toppling of these military leaders shows distinct resemblance to the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011.
Darfur Genocide:
Currently al-Bashir is facing five counts of crimes against humanity and two counts of war crimes in the International Criminal Court due to his actions in Darfur, an area of Western Sudan, between 2003 and 2008. The collective charges brought against him include alleged murder, torture, rape, and the intentional targeting of civilians. The Darfur genocide is considered the first genocide of the 21st century and the United Nations estimates that 300,000 Darfuri civilians lost their lives. Darfur specifically was targeted because it was the home of many of the opposition groups that were critical and did not approve of al-Bashir’s reign.
Food Shortages and Rising Prices:
Food shortages and rising prices have been the primary reasons protests against al-Bashir arose, but most recently al-Bashir decided to end the government subsidies for bread making. This, compounded with the rapid inflation rates Sudan has faced, led to the price of bread nearly tripling within a single day. When South Sudan declared independence from Sudan, the Sudanese economy was unable to rely on the profits from the oil industry, thus creating an unprecedented economic spiral. The combination of weak government, induced incentive to produce food, and daily price increases due to inflation has led the people of Sudan to protest al-Bashir and his influence within the current government. Those within Sudan felt that the government had the resources to alleviate these issues, but they lack trust in al-Bashir's ability to allocate these resources correctly. This led to chants throughout the streets, translating to “the people demand the fall of the regime.”
U.S. Assistance to Sudan:
Due to the prevalent conflicts and tendency for natural disasters, Sudan primarily receives humanitarian aid from the United States. The United States has a natural interest in paving the way for a Sudanese government that embraces democracy, which has been gradually implemented by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. This accord aims to pave the way for a democratic Sudan by ending the civil war and allowing for aid that specifically combats gender-based violence, food insecurity, and complications regarding assistance delivery during conflict. Additionally, the United States is also involved in limited bilateral trade with Sudan to help improve their economy. The United States has lifted prior sanctions on Sudan in an attempt to boost their economy, but this action had little effect on halting the rising inflation. Opportunities still exist for Sudan to receive more funding from the United States and the international community, but its place on the United States' list of state-sponsored terrorism prevents this.
The Transitional Government:
Shortly after the ousting of former Sudanese President al-Bashir, the military announced that a military council will be running the nation for the next two years while democratic elections are organized. General Abdel-Fattah Burhan has been sworn in as the leader of the transitional government after the Sudanese people rejected General Awad ibn Ouf, a close ally of the former president. In an effort to win the support of the general public, the council recently announced that the new prime minister and cabinet officials would be civilians. Despite this statement, the Sudanese citizens have largely disapproved of the involvement of the military in any role of the transitional government. Protestors recently released statements requesting that the military allow for a four year interim government that consists solely of civilians, but these appeals have not been acted upon. The United States Department of State has asked the military to “step aside and make way for a peaceful civilian-led transition.” However, it is clear that the protests will not end until the military has released power to civilians. The State Department is set to have an official meeting in Sudan to access the situation.
Recommendations:
Since the end of Sudan’s civil war, the United States has provided extensive aid to the country and sought out ways to help and invigorate Sudan’s economy. The United States should continue its efforts to support Sudan, as this upcoming period is a critical moment for the country’s government. Bolstering relations with the country and working to make Sudan prosperous and stabilized will further United States interests, as peace within Sudan could prevent an intensified conflict that could implicate the entire region. Additionally, as the State Department looks to hold meetings with Sudan, the United States should continue to hold their stance for peaceful civilian-led transition rather than a military-led government. It is essential that Sudanese civilians feel secure and confident in the new transitional government in order for Sudan to have a prosperous, democratic state.
Bibliography
Elbagir, Nima. "Sudan's President Bashir Forced out in Military Coup." CNN. April 11, 2019. https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/11/africa/sudan-unrest-intl/index.html.
Magdy, Samy. "New Ruling Sudan Military Council Promises Civilian Cabinet." AP NEWS. April 14, 2019. https://www.apnews.com/b00ee252cf4c4d08b2d0a88380df2696.
Michael, Maggie. "Sudan's Military Overthrows President amid Bloody Protests." AP NEWS. April 11, 2019. https://apnews.com/3b259f7aacaa4601a713103006de8687.https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/12/africa/sudan-army-bashir-intl/index.html\.
Peralta, Eyder. "Upset Over Rising Prices, Protesters In Sudan Take To The Streets." NPR. December 27, 2018. https://www.npr.org/2018/12/27/680385220/upset-over-rising-prices-protesters-in-sudan-take-to-the-streets.
"Sudan | Disaster Assistance." U.S. Agency for International Development. March 18, 2019. https://www.usaid.gov/crisis/sudan.
The Prosecutor v. Omar Hassan Ahmad Al Bashir (International Criminal Court April, 2018). https://www.icc-cpi.int/CaseInformationSheets/AlBashirEng.pdf.
"Why the End of US Sanctions Hasn't Helped Sudan." BBC News. July 11, 2018. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44711355.
Wroughton, Lesley. "U.S. Urges Sudan's Military to Step Aside, Make Way For..." Reuters. April 18, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sudan-politics-usa/us-says-supports-transition-in-sudan-led-by-civilians-idUSKCN1RU23B.
This topic is very interesting and this memo did a very good job explaining Sudan's political system and how it is transitioning to democracy. al-Bashir must be held accountable for the harm that he has caused. I find it interesting that the harmful act he committed which was between 2003-2008 and he is now being held accountable. That just shows how corrupt the government is. I agree that the United States should continue to support Sudan by providing aid.
ReplyDelete- Glendy Alvarez
This is a very interesting and timely memo that explores an issue that I did not know anything about. As you noted, the likelihood of a successful and peaceful democratic transition remains questionable if the military refuses to relinquish control to civilians. Because transitional governments are responsible for outlining the framework for a new constitution, it is imperative that Sudanese civilians are included in the process lest the military creates a system in which it wields a disproportionate amount of power. Additionally, the refusal of the military to yield power to civilians suggests that even after constructing a new government, the transitional authority may refuse to give up their power, preventing a full democratic transition. Overall, I thought this memo did a great job exploring this complicated issue and making recommendation for future US action.
ReplyDeleteThis memo overall did a great job at delving into this incredibly recent event that I had little knowledge about. It is crazy to think that someone who holds power for 30 years could be called a president. al-Bashir must be held responsible for the genocide, which may be easier to hold him responsible since he has stepped down. The people have not had the ability to vocalize their election rights in a long time. It is understandable why the civilians would be so skeptical of the military holding transitional power. The military government has to now think if the citizens should play an active role in the transitional government or if they want to continuously hold their power for two years with some involvement.
ReplyDeleteYou all did such a good job with this memo. This is such an interesting and complex topic that I think should be made more prominent in international conversations. I hope that a peaceful and successful transition is an accomplishable goal for Sudan, however we know from other regions with similar situations that normally the process is long and arduous. I think that the United States' actions so far have helped bolster this positive transition, however it is not yet a fully accomplished goal. Great job on this blog! - Shannon S
ReplyDeleteGreat job with this memo, this issue is something that should be highlighted more often in foreign policy discussions. Having a leader such as al-Bashir is very common, sadly. With the crimes al-Bashir has been accused of it must come to no surprise that the people of Sudan overthrew him. The issues relating to the cost of bread, an insufficient oil industry, and the economic crisis, are staggering but do they require the help of the US? For diplomatic reasons the US has interest in the country but what else is achieved? Sudan is unlikely to find an industry on its own that supports its economy (while competing with their neighbors and the international market). Instead of assisting the country with a stable democracy (which is already in the making), maybe the US can focus on finding an industry/market that can support Sudan and therefore the relationship the US will hold with them. I am not well versed in this topic but I you did a great job of presenting the current issue.
ReplyDeleteYour memo did a good job of summarizing the previous actions Bashir has committed while president. This protest movement could also be explained as an after effect of the successful Tunisia protests even though Sudan's protests began many months ago. You provide effective recommendations for the United States to consider in light of the many humanitarian concerns within Sudan. The transition to a civilian led democracy from a military controlled state is difficult and the US should remain aware of the current status in Sudan. The future of Bashir himself is unique in that Sudan says they will not hand him over to the UN to by tried for his war crimes.
ReplyDelete-Adam Miller
This memo did a great job in summarizing a very timely event. It was concise and well-written, making it easy to follow. I think the US' interest in Sudan could have been expanded upon a bit more- the US certainly has an interest in establishing democracy in Sudan to stabilize the region and better combat terrorist organizations located there, but what makes Sudan different then other countries with the same issues, and what makes US interest in Sudan particularly important?
ReplyDeleteIn addition, I think the section on the current governmental transition was extremely important to cover and you all did a great job with that. I agree that having the military in charge of the transition is problematic and puts the country at risk of being led by another military dictator. I think it is important that Sudanese citizens are also concerned about this, and with the help of the US, they are pushing for more civilians to be involved in the transitory process. Overall, great job! It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Great memo. Learning that the protest have lead to a temporary government run by the military is alarming. I worry that the military will not give up this leadership which could result in a authoritarian state. Ignoring the appeal for a separate government supports this fear. I agree with your recommendation that the US should push for a civilian lead government. This peaceful transition should result in a more just government.
ReplyDeleteThis was a great memo on a topic I had only heard of briefly before. Ignoring such a key ally of the US could prove costly in helping to maintain long term stability in the region. I agree with your recommendation that the US should continue to support Sudan however, I believe that this should only be through humanitarian assistance and in guidance with establishing a new long term government for the country. As without a stable lasting government that the people believe in as you point out there will simply be a repeat of the current situation except with a new leader in place.
ReplyDeleteI think it is such an interesting news story. Especially coming from a dictatorship, it would be interesting to see how much the United States will get involved. Of course, we always support when countries are inching toward democracy, but within a transitional authority enforced by the military, how much of this can we get behind? Given President Trump's "America First" approach, how much would involvement really benefit the US?
ReplyDelete